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Going against the trend - Getting disarmament moving again

On the occasion of the presentation of its Annual Report 2007/2008, the Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC) notes that the trend towards worldwide rearmament is continuing. Global military expenditure increased by approximately 30 percent in real terms between 2001 and 2006 and totaled an estimated US $1,179 billion in 2006, the latest year for which detailed figures are available. Negotiations on disarmament have come to a standstill and there are even signs of a new arms race. But despite these alarming developments, disarmament expert Hans Blix regards the prospects of nuclear disarmament as good. In his contribution to BICC’s Annual Report, Blix calls for a greater effort to prevent the further proliferation of these weapons.

The United States accounted for almost half of global military expenditure in 2006—a total of US $528 billion. The steady increase in the US military budget over the past six years is responsible for a considerable share of the overall increase in worldwide defense expenditure since 2001. Other big spenders in 2006 were the United Kingdom (US $59 billion), France (US $53 billion), China (US $50 billion) and Japan (US $44 billion).

Peter J. Croll, Director of BICC, emphasizes, “The discrepancy within the donor community between military expenditure and expenditure on development aid continued in 2006.” Whereas official development assistance (ODA) in the OECD states (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) totaled US $104 billion in 2006, the 30 Member States spent US $891 billion on defense—in other words, nine times this amount.

“With the exception of the United States, the ongoing global trend toward re-armament is most pronounced in large, ‘up-and-coming’ developing countries with rapidly growing economies, such as China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Russia,” Croll says. By contrast, military expenditure in highly industrialized and wealthy states, particularly in Western Europe, tends to remain rather constant or is even declining.

New trend in Germany’s defense policy

Germany’s military expenditure is also relatively low by European comparison and fell by a total of approximately nine percent in the period between 2001 and 2006. “However, 2006 saw the beginning of a new trend in German defense policy: military expenditure began to rise once again—initially from €27.87 billion in 2006 to €28.4 billion in 2007,” says BICC expert Marc von Boemcken. The new federal budget, which was approved by the Bundestag on 30 November 2007, includes a defense budget of €29.45 billion. “It appears that this gradual increase in German military expenditure is to be continued in future budgets and is due to pass the 30 billion Euro mark by 2010,” von Boemcken continues.

Exports of German military goods have also increased considerably. The value of individual and collective export licenses for military equipment rose from €6.2 billion (2005) to €7.7 billion (2006). Germany exported military equipment worth €933 million to developing countries in 2006. According to von Boemcken, Germany is thus the biggest exporter of military equipment in the European Union and the world’s third largest exporter behind the United States and Russia.

Opposing trends in global security: From ‘Cold Peace’ to a new disarmament dynamics

“We are experiencing a revival of Cold War politics without the Cold War—a Cold Peace if you will.” This is the view taken by Professor Hans Blix, Chairman of the International Commission on Weapons of Mass Destruction, Stockholm, and a Member of BICC’s International Board in his contribution to BICC’s Annual Report.

As an internationally renowned expert on disarmament, Blix too considers that there are not only signs of a standstill in the negotiations on disarmament, but even of a trend towards a new arms race. For example, the US government is planning to develop a new standard nuclear weapon (Reliable Replacement Warhead) and increased its budget for the anti-missile project to US $11 billion in 2007. China has modernized its armed forces and shot down one of its weather satellites, demonstrating a capability for military action in space. Russia has resumed the routine long distance flights with nuclear armed planes and the United Kingdom has decided to keep open the option of continuing its Trident nuclear submarine program. At the same time, North Korea dismissed international doubts over the country's nuclear capabilities by detonating a nuclear device with at least partial success. Iran is continuing its development of a uranium enrichment capability that could in the future be used to produce material for nuclear weapons, destabilizing an already fragile region.

“It is time we wake up to this reality and revive international disarmament efforts. The NPT remains the fundamental pillar of international efforts to rid the world of nuclear weapons,” Blix states. The former Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and former Head of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) proposes the following measures:

  • Return of all the parties to the original agreements of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (commitment of the signatory non-nuclear weapon states not to acquire nuclear weapons, whereas the nuclear-weapon states in return bound themselves to negotiate in good faith toward nuclear disarmament).
  • Entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
  • Agreement on a verified treaty prohibiting the production of fissile material for weapons.
  • Steps by the nuclear-weapon states to reduce their strategic nuclear arsenals.
  • International agreements supervised by the IAEA, which ensure the availability of nuclear fuel for civilian reactors while minimizing the risk of weapon proliferation.
  • Pursuit of regional approaches, particularly in areas of tension. It would be desirable to obtain commitments from the states in the Middle East (including Iran and Israel) to accept a verified suspension of the production of enriched uranium and plutonium for a prolonged period of time, while obtaining international assurances of the supply of fuel for civilian nuclear power. Similar arrangements are foreseen for the Korean Peninsula.
  • Inspections, which are conducted by international experts as well as the United Nations, the IAEA and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and which are not contradictory to national verification measures.

Hans Blix places hope in political change in the United States, in a new generation of international leaders—not only in Washington and Moscow—and in the continued work of disarmament experts and institutions, not least in the Commission on Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Hans Blix concludes, “While some developments are truly worrying, on balance, I believe the prospect for peace and disarmament is good. We do not need a new roadmap (...). The path forward may not be easy—but it is known. The blueprints for progress are on the table.”

In the words of BICC’s Director Peter J. Croll: “We want to contribute to the current discussions and options with our Annual Report 2007/2008 and the data and analyses contained therein.” BICC provides applied research, consultancy and capacity-building. The Annual Report also presents current activities, such as research on African diaspora, consultancy to the Government of Southern Sudan as well as data base services on arms exports or resources and conflicts.


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